Saturday, May 19th, 2012

Infusion Wire: “The New Normal”

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mike-calhoun-thumbMike Calhoun: My Vision >>

Here’s the most important fact from today’s article: in 2010, Short Sales hit record levels, making up over 17% of all residential real estate purchases for the last four months.

Combine that with the fact that the market opportunity is spreading from the 6 problem states…to 34 states facing negative equity rates of over 10%…and that is the NEW NORMAL. We’re looking at three more years of these conditions!!

It’s getting to the point where we don’t even have to promote our product anymore — the media is doing it for us!!

We knew we’d be right when we claimed 2010 was the year of the short sale…but we didn’t realized HOW RIGHT we would be by now. Find out why super-empowered agents around the country have been able to turbo-charge their business through this crisis — check out the Short Sale Engine ASAP!!

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It’s looking like this summer will be a waiting game, full of contradictory reports and expert economists saying stuff that boils down to…”let’s wait and see.

Here’s one trend that’s absolutely crystal clear, though: short sales are still on the rise in 2010. From November 2009 to February 2010, short sales grew from 12.4% of all real estate purchases to 17.1%. In April, that number has peaked even higher: 17.9%.

Those numbers are from Campbell Surveys, and as their research director Thomas Popik put it:

Short sales now account for the No. 1 category of distressed property. Losses on short sales are typically lower than for REO, and both lenders and the government are pushing programs to facilitate short sales. But as more and more people default or simply want to walk away from their properties, mortgage servicers are having trouble expeditiously processing these complicated transactions.”

Now, let’s combine this with what we’ve already covered recently in the article “Re-Thinking Everything” — the national numbers from Core Logic showing that the problem of underwater homeowners and shadow inventory is considerably more widespread than just the 6 problem states the media has been focusing on…just look at all the states pushing above the 10% mark in the first quarter of 2010:

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The pundits have all been talking about “The New Normal,” and folks…this is it. These are strong trends with serious staying power, and they’re going to disrupt the entire industry. We’ve seen this coming for awhile, and we’ve developed a power tool for weathering the storm in style: the Short Sale Engine. Get in touch with us if you’ve got questions…we’re all about building a bigger and better winning team!!

AND REMEMBER: We’re going to be offering some amazing technology Thursday night at 9:00 (eastern). It’s free, SO SIGN UP HERE!

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The Conversation @ Realty Infusion

6 Responses to “Infusion Wire: “The New Normal””
  1. Bruce Bridges says:

    Great analysis. I’ve noticed in recent weeks you’re doing an even better job of cutting straight to the heart of the matter…AND I LIKE IT. Keep up the good work, and keep the smart analysis coming! You guys are like a CHEAT SHEET!

  2. Infinitez says:

    I’m curious: does negative equity necessarily mean impending foreclosures?

  3. Justin says:

    @Bruce

    Thank you! As much as I’d like to take that as a compliment, I’d attribute that to Garrett Heaney’s editorial guidance…

    @Infinitez

    According to Core Logic, Merrill Lynch, Amherst Securities, the FHA and Elizabeth Warren’s statistical work, yes…negative equity is the single strongest indicator of future foreclosures. So for that reason alone, it’s one of the most important metrics to be keeping an eye on in 2010.

    When I first saw that chart of the Core Logic data, I was immediately re-thinking everything. It points to much broader problem and a sustained inventory of “distressed sales” on a national basis, for years to come.

  4. Great format, great content and great overall presentation.

  5. Ellen Paige says:

    i am curious – why did you say you expect this to persist for three years?

  6. Frank DeMitri says:

    Just wanted to say – thanks guys! I have been clicking around your blog for the past 20 minutes! TONS of good stuff here! Glad I found you.

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